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A dispassionate look at Global Warming
First Published: 20 May 2006
SUMMARY The Kyoto advocates, with a barrage of near-sighted observations, conclude that the Earth is at the verge of doomsday, caused by modern industry. This is a political agenda used to justify a demand for an unearned share of industrial production to promote redistribution of wealth.
- Scientific evidence does not support doomsday assertions.
- Climatic changes are consistent with natural fluctuations.
- Changes in the Earth`s magnetic poles parallel climatic changes. Yet, no one could seriously suggest that atmospheric conditions have caused a shift in the Earth`s magma flow!
- The Earth does not maintain a perfect circular orbit.
- Intensity differences in sunshine striking the Earth`s surface, as the distance from sun to earth changes with elliptical variations, is sufficient to explain climactic changes and is a more plausible explanation for ALL of these natural observations.
- There has been no explanation of how the `greenhouse gases` can effect a one way valve effect, freely allowing inbound radiant energy to pass to the earth`s surface but blocking its outbound dissipation.
Yes, Global Warming is Real.The Kyoto advocates are at it again. With a barrage of near-sighted climatic observations, they conclude that the Earth is at the verge of doomsday, all caused by the modern industrial society and `fossil` fuels that exhaust carbon dioxide waste. But this does not stop them from demanding a greater slice of the wealth produced by that society, for economic redistribution, the core effect of the Kyoto treaty.
Recently, TIME Magazine (April 3, 2006) had a cover story proclaiming that `the end is at hand` and that we should all be very worried. What was the big worry that was going to destroy the world? That global warming was going to cause the oceans to rise between three inches and a foot over the next 100 years. TIME was obviously betting that the public wouldn`t remember that only weeks earlier (Mar 13, 2006 `Who Were The First Americans?`) it gave the milestones, ``... 15,000 [years ago] Evidence of humans in South America, Glacial melting floods Bering land bridge 10,000 [years ago] End of last ice age in North America, Kennewick Man lives in Pacific Northwest ...``
No, There`s No Benefit in PanickingBefore the public is hoodwinked into believing the Kyoto propaganda, or any other theory, it should be made aware of the hard science produced by those who investigate and report observations, outside of a political agenda.
There is no question that the Earth is warming and has been warming for the past several thousand years (see, fig 1). This is a cyclic process that has occurred many times. Yes, it appears that we are nearing a peak and that peak will occur over the next FEW HUNDRED years.
The recent rapid escalation of global temperature is well within the oscillations of the past several hundred years. Kyoto proponents point to the rise in temperature over the last two hundred years - the period that corresponds to the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But, when we take a less myopic view, there has been LESS THAN A HALF DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO 1000 YEARS AGO (see, 2). For those who challenge the scientific observations, let`s correlate with TIME`s observations. 15,000 years ago correspond to the period of rapid warming and glacial melting shown in (fig 1). Scientific findings are in agreement with the milestones given by TIME.
Scientific evidence does not support the assertion that the current global warming is caused by modern society, exclusively. All of the observations are, however, consistent with the normal fluctuations / cyclic patterns demonstrated by scientific research and observations.
A cyclical climatic nature is also indicated by the variations in El-Niño intensity which have been demonstrated over the preceding 2000 YEARS. These changes could not have been caused by modern industry during the past 200 years (see, 3).
Kyoto proponents do not have an explanation for the shift in the Earth`s magnetic poles (see, 4) that have paralleled the climatic changes. Unless, of course, they wish to postulate that atmospheric conditions have caused a shift in the Earth`s ferrous magma flows! (6)
The Earth`s Orbit is Not a Perfect Circle
|The prime argument of the Kyoto proponents MUST be that the Earth`s orbit about the sun is a perfect circle. That is the only way that the radiant energy from the sun can remain constant. And, radiation must remain constant if one is to say that a change in carbon dioxide concentration from 0.2% (0.002) to 0.4% (0.004) can be the singular cause of global warming. Reason dictates that the Earth does not maintain a perfect circular orbit around the sun. Just as the Earth`s `wobble` is responsible for the seasons, a slightly imperfect elliptical orbit is sufficient to explain the slight climactic variations that would occur secondary to a variable intensity of sunlight incident on the Earth`s surface as the distance from sun to earth varies with the elliptical variations. There`s nothing new about this, either. the phenomenon is known as the Milankovitch Cycles for Milutin Milankovitch, who is generally credited with calculating their magnitude (see, 5). And how do the Milankovitch Cycles correlate with scientific observation? The temperature cycles show a periodicity (time between peaks) of about 100,000 years, so do the Milankovitch Cycles.||Energy /Distance variation|
|This is a critical argument due to the scientific fact that the intensity of radiant energy varies as a second order power (square) with distance. If the distance is changed by a multiple of four, intensity changes not by four but by a factor of 16.|
The public should also demand an explanation of how the small increase of carbon dioxide causes a one way valve to allow energy to enter Earth without impediment yet prevent energy`s outward escape into space. The theory of glacial reflection and a positive feedback loop does not prove a greenhouse effect over natural climatic cycles, as both will produce the same effect. Where are the scientific studies showing that such a small change in Carbon dioxide concentration will repel radiant energy as claimed by Kyoto theorists?
Scientific observations are consistent with cyclical theories of climatic change and indicate that we are experiencing expected changes that have little, if anything, to do with the changes in atmospheric gases.
The Real Dangers are Not Addressed
| Phase Shift||There is a more substantial and consequential risk that has not been addressed by the politicos and agents of social change. That is the shifting magnetic pole. The change in locus of the magnetic pole does not, necessarily, indicating impending doom, even if it were to go neutral or change polarity. What is important is what the changing pole signifies. That is a movement of the internal magma core of the earth (6). With the movement of the core, there will be compressions and shifts of the Earth`s crust, the land masses. As the crust compresses, there will be contralateral extrusions and, consequentially, an increase in quake activity due to the shifting land masses.|
|Milankovitch Cycles are sufficient to postulate a phase shift with the Earth`s core moving at a differential speed compared to the Earth`s crust, causing magma flow changes and crust movement|
Need for Public to Understand Scientific ObservationsIt is important that the public understands the scientific facts so that it can make rational decisions, rather than falling prey to those with a social agenda. Yes, there is global warming which is reaching its historical cyclical peak. But, this must be viewed in the context of thousands of years, not a few hundred years. It is prudent to minimize air pollution to a level that will maintain a sustainable quality of life. Scare tactics are unwarranted and would prove fruitless if implemented.
The public, and, importantly, its leaders, need to understand the scientific bases for natural observations so that they can provide guidance as to a rational course of action and reassurance to the public at large that natural occurance are just that, natural. We can anticipate and plan for natural changes, we cannot stop them.
Easy References(1) Image:Ice_Age_Temperature.png
(3) Decadal-Scale Variations in El-Niño Intensity
(4) Earth`s Magnetic Pole Drifting Quickly.
(5) Milankovitch Cycles and Glaciation
(6) Dynamo theory
Notice for (1) and (2) that the temperature fluctuations are in the Antarctic and are more extreme than at equatorial locations.
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The ramblings of an old coot who knows that no one is going to pay any attention to what he says. But, say it he will because when it`s too late, people will say, `why didn`t you tell us, why didn`t you say something` and I can say, `I did, you didn`t listen`
So, these will be the warnings of one too old for you to hear, too resolute for you to heed. It will be easy to ignore me. You`ll say that I`m a racist or a bigot, a redneck or a right wing extremist, just don`t say that I didn`t warn you.